U.S. Home Sales Edge Higher as Rising Mortgage Rates Pressure Buyers
The U.S. housing market recorded a modest increase in existing-home sales in September 2026, but rising mortgage rates and a sharp decline in pending sales are creating uncertainty for the months ahead.
According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), completed existing-home sales increased 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million. However, sales remained 2.2% below the level recorded a year earlier. Meanwhile, more homes are available for sale, giving buyers additional choices and potentially more negotiating power in many markets.
Existing-Home Inventory Reaches a Multi-Year High
The number of existing homes available for sale rose to 1.60 million in September, up 4.6% from September 2025. This was the highest inventory level since November 2019.
At the current sales pace, the available inventory represented 4.8 months of supply, unchanged from August but higher than a year earlier.
Growing inventory gives prospective buyers more opportunities to compare properties, prices, and features before making a decision. For sellers, however, additional competition can make pricing and presentation more important.
Market conditions continue to differ by region and property type, so national figures should be viewed as a broad overview rather than a prediction of what will happen in every local market.
Rising Mortgage Rates Challenge Affordability
Mortgage costs remain a major concern for prospective buyers. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 7.40% in the week reported on October 20, 2026, its highest level since November 2023.
Higher rates increase monthly payments and can reduce the amount a household qualifies to borrow. As a result, some buyers may postpone purchases, reconsider their budgets, or search for less expensive properties.
The effect is also visible in pending home sales, which measure signed contracts and offer an indication of future completed transactions.
NAR reported that its Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September to 66.0, the lowest reading since the index began in 2001. Pending sales were also down 11.3% from September 2025, with declines across all four major U.S. regions.
The contrast between a small increase in completed sales and a steep decline in pending contracts suggests that higher borrowing costs are weighing on near-term demand.
Home Prices Continue to Rise Modestly
Despite affordability pressures, the national median existing-home sale price reached $417,500 in September, an increase of 1.3% compared with a year earlier.
This shows that rising inventory and weaker sales activity have not yet translated into a national year-over-year decline in the median sale price. Individual markets can nevertheless experience price reductions, slower appreciation, or declining values depending on local supply and demand.
For buyers, a larger selection of listings may create opportunities to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs. Sellers may need to pay closer attention to comparable sales and competing properties to set realistic expectations.
First-Time Buyers and Market Conditions
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of existing-home sales in September, up slightly from 30% in August and a year earlier.
Even with that modest increase, high mortgage rates and homeownership costs remain substantial barriers for many households entering the market.
The combination of elevated borrowing costs, additional listings, and slower pending sales suggests that the market is becoming less favorable to sellers in some areas. However, it is more accurate to describe the national market as offering buyers improved negotiating opportunities than to assume every location has shifted decisively in their favor.
What the Changing Market Means for Buyers and Sellers
The latest data offers several practical considerations.
For buyers: More inventory may provide additional choices and room to negotiate. Buyers should compare mortgage offers, calculate the full cost of ownership, and consider whether a purchase remains affordable if other household expenses increase.
For sellers: Pricing a property realistically and preparing it well for showings can help it compete with other listings. Sellers may also need to consider reasonable concessions depending on local conditions.
For homeowners in managed communities: Prospective buyers often consider association fees, community amenities, maintenance standards, and governing rules when comparing properties. Clear information about these factors can help buyers understand the full cost and responsibilities of ownership.
For real estate professionals: Local inventory, days on market, pending contracts, and comparable sales can help identify trends that national statistics alone may not capture.
Looking Ahead
September’s data shows a housing market facing competing forces: completed sales edged higher, inventory continued to grow, and the national median price remained above its year-earlier level. At the same time, rising mortgage rates coincided with a significant drop in pending sales.
The direction of the market will depend in part on future borrowing costs, affordability, available listings, and buyer confidence. Buyers and sellers should follow updated national reports while paying close attention to the conditions in their own communities.
For the latest national housing statistics, visit the National Association of REALTORS® and review its Pending Home Sales reports.