Support for California Billionaire Tax Falls Ahead of Election Day
Support for California’s proposed one-time tax on billionaires has declined in the final stretch before the November 3, 2026, election, according to a new statewide poll.
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that 46% of likely voters planned to vote yes on Proposition 40, while 52% said they would vote no. Another 2% were undecided. In September, 52% of likely voters supported the measure, marking a notable shift in voter sentiment.
The proposal has become one of California’s most closely watched ballot measures, drawing debate over how the state should fund public services and whether a one-time wealth tax could affect its long-term economy.
What Proposition 40 Would Do
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on certain assets held by qualifying taxpayers whose covered assets exceed $1 billion, under the measure’s terms.
The proposal is designed to generate temporary revenue, primarily for health care. Under the official summary, 90% of the revenue would go toward health care, with the remaining 10% allocated to food assistance or education-related programs.
Supporters argue the tax could help offset federal funding reductions affecting health care and other public services. They say the measure would require some of the state’s wealthiest residents to contribute additional resources at a time when many households face rising living costs.
Opponents argue that the tax could encourage wealthy residents to relocate or change their financial arrangements, potentially reducing other tax revenue over time. They also question the proposal’s design and the possible consequences for California’s business climate.
Latest Poll Shows Opposition Moving Ahead
PPIC conducted its survey from October 16 through October 22, interviewing 1,728 California adults, including 1,086 likely voters. The margin of sampling error for likely voters was approximately 3.8 percentage points.
The results showed support for Proposition 40 falling six percentage points from September, while opposition moved into the lead. The polling reflects voter intentions at the time of the survey and does not determine the eventual election result.
The shift comes amid an expensive campaign, with opponents spending heavily to defeat the measure. The proposal has also divided some Democratic voters and organizations, with supporters emphasizing health care funding and critics warning about potential economic consequences.
Other Ballot Measures Could Affect the Outcome
Proposition 40 is not the only measure on the November ballot involving taxes and state finances. Propositions 41 and 42 address restrictions on certain new state taxes and could complicate the practical effect of Proposition 40 if voters approve multiple measures.
Proposition 3 presents a separate tax question. It would make permanent an existing higher-income tax provision that supports education and health care. In the same PPIC survey, 58% of likely voters supported Proposition 3, while 41% opposed it.
The contrasting polling results suggest that voters may distinguish between a one-time tax on billionaire wealth and a tax on high incomes that is already in place.
Political Debate and Economic Concerns
Supporters of Proposition 40 say the revenue could help protect essential services, particularly health care programs facing financial pressure. Critics, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, have warned that a wealth tax could make California less competitive and affect the state’s already volatile revenue base.
California relies significantly on income taxes paid by high earners, making the long-term fiscal effects of changes to wealthy residents’ behavior an important part of the debate. The actual impact of Proposition 40 would depend on the measure’s implementation, taxpayer responses and how much revenue the state ultimately collects.
The measure has also drawn national attention because of its potential scale and the broader debate over taxing wealth rather than income.
What California Voters Should Know
With Election Day approaching, voters can review the official state voter guide for the full text of Proposition 40, its proposed tax structure, how revenue would be allocated and the fiscal analysis prepared for voters.
The latest PPIC poll indicates that opposition currently exceeds support, but polling is only a snapshot of voter opinion. The final result will depend on ballots cast and counted in the November 3 election.
Whatever the outcome, the debate highlights a central question for California policymakers: how to finance health care and other public services while maintaining a stable tax base and an attractive environment for businesses and residents.